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中国经济的转折点

上一篇 / 下一篇  2010-08-10 23:52:45

China's Economic Turning Point

中国经济的转折点

Ross Garnaut, 08.06.10, 04:00 AM EDT

作者:Ross Garnaut201086

Wage increases, savings reductions,diversificationand inflation could lie ahead.

工资增长,储蓄减少,转折和通胀近在眼前

 

What are the implications of the "turning period" forChina's continuing economic development, forChina's interaction with the global economy and for economic policy? Here I focus on four of the most important consequences, mention a consequence that is widely anticipated and feared, but which need not eventuate, and brieflydiscuss one wayin whichperceptions ofChina's growth will be affected by its having entered theturning period.

“转型期”对于中国的持续经济发展,对于中国应对全球经济形势和采取经济政策意味着什么?本文将重点分析四个最重要的影响,并提出一个众所预期而又为之担忧的,但并不一定会实现的影响,并从以下角度——中国进入转型期将会影响对其经济增长的看法,做一些简短的探讨。

 

AsChinaenters deeply into theturning period(when unlimited supplies of labor become more difficult to mobilize for industrial development), there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in thewage share of income. The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed. The rise in the wage share of income is likely to be reflected in an increase in the consumption share of expenditure. There will be a reduction in the national savings rate.

随着中国深深地步入转型期(用无限量供应的劳动力来刺激产业发展变得越来越困难了),实际工资和工资占营收比重必将持续大幅提高。1980年代以来日益增长的收入分配不公的强劲趋势可能得到扭转。在消费占支出比重增加的情况下,工资占营收比重可能随之增加。全国范围的储蓄率将下降。

It is possible that the investment rate will in fact rise. Whether or not this is the case, it is likely thatChina's savings rate will fall more than its investment rate. This will reduce the external surplus in trade and current payments. It will therefore ease current international pressures over payments imbalances and exchange rates. It would be wise forChinato ensure that total domestic demand expands enough to ensure that this is the case.

投资率实际上可能上升了。不管事实是否如何,中国的储蓄率可能会降至低于投资率的水平。这将会降低贸易和经常性支付的对外顺差。因而这将缓解有关收支不平衡和汇率的国际压力。对中国来说,确保国内需求扩大以促成上述事实是一种明智的做法。

The reduction in Chinese current external payments surpluses is therefore a second importantconsequenceof moving through the turning period. This could ease tensions with other countries--especially theUnited States--which have identified Chinese surpluses as a principal cause of their own economic problems. Regrettably, a large fall in Chinese savings relative to investment would put upward pressure on global long-term interest rates and increase the requirement to reduce domestic expenditure on goods and services in the countries facing large challenges in the management of external and public debt including theUnited States.

因此中国当前贸易顺差的减少是进入转型期的带来的第二个重要影响。这将缓和与其它国家——特别是美国——之间的紧张关系,它们将中国的顺差视为本国经济问题的首要原因。遗憾的是,中国储蓄相对投资大幅度的下降将会推动全球长期利率上升,促使那些外部和公共债务管理不善的国家,包括美国,减少其国内的商品和服务支出。

 

The third important consequence ofChinamoving through and beyond the turning period is that the center ofChina's comparative advantage in international trade will shift rapidly from a fairly narrow range of labor-intensive products to a wider range of more capital-intensive and technologically sophisticated products. This will ease some dimensions ofChina's trade problems with the rest of the world (perceptions of competitive pressure on other developing countries and heavily concentrated pressures for adjustment on particular sectors in industrialized countries) and complicate others (competitive pressures will be felt across a much wider range of industries in industrialized countries). The diversification ofChina's comparative advantage will probably halt the decline in Chinese export prices that was associated with the heavy concentration of export expansion in a small number of products.

中国经历转型期带来的第三个重要影响是中国在国际贸易中的核心竞争力将从范围狭窄的劳动力密集型产品转向范围更广的资金密集型产品和高技术产品。这将使得中国和其它国家贸易问题的某些方面得到缓解(其它发展中国家感受到中国的竞争压力以及工业化国家某些特定部门强烈要求政策调整),而其它方面却更加复杂化了(工业化国家有更多的行业竞争力下降了)。中国竞争优势的多元化可能会遏制中国出口价格的下降,那主要是因为出口的扩张大量集中于少数产品造成的。

 

The fourth important consequence of entering the turning period involves a policy risk to economic stability and growth in the period ahead. Rising real wages and the pressure of strong increases in demand for non-traded goods and services will be inflationary unless accompanied by a combination of firm monetary policy and an appreciating renminbi. Nevertheless, the Chinese authorities might be tempted to maintain the fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar to avoid adjustment pressures on export-oriented labor-intensive industries, which have played such an important part in Chinese economic growth since the mid 1980s.

进入转型期带来的第四个重要影响是未来关于经济稳定和增长的政策风险。实际工资的增长和对消费性商品和服务需求强劲增长的压力势必带来通胀,除非随之而来的是稳定的货币政策和人民币升值。然而出口导向的劳动密集型产业在中国1980年代中期以来的经济增长中扮演了重要角色,中国当局可能屈从诱惑,保持对美元的固定汇率,以回避对其做出调整所带来的压力。

To seek to maintain a fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar through and beyond the turning period would only postpone and not avoid the structural adjustments that are a necessary accompaniment of the current stage of Chinese economic growth. Payments surpluses would eventually overwhelm the efforts tosterilizetheir monetary effects. The adjustments would occur

through inflation.

在转型期间保持对美元的固定汇率只能延缓但不能避免结构调整,这是中国经济发展到现阶段必不可少的。贸易顺差最终会压倒他们的努力,消除货币政策带来的效应。这种调整将会假手通胀来实现。

It is likely that the authorities would respond to higher inflation by tightening fiscal and monetary policies. This would unnecessarily reduce the rate of economic growth below sustainable levels and postpone the increase in Chinese living standards that can comethrough and beyondthe turning period. The inflation and the delays in inequality reductions could be destabilizing to domestic political stability. The delays in reduction in the external payments surplus would certainly bedestabilizing forChina'sproductiveinteraction with the international economy and society.

当局可能会收紧财政和货币政策来应对更高的通胀。这不一定会将经济增长率降低至可持续水平之下并减缓转型期间中国生活水平的提高。通胀和迟迟不能减少不公将会造成国内政治不稳。迟迟不能减少对外贸易顺差将会损害中国与国际经济和社会的有效互动。

There is one consequence of moving through and beyond the turning period that is often feared but which is unlikely to be important unless there are mistakes in economic policy, and one importantimplicationfor perceptions of the growth of the Chinese economy. There is no basis for the expectation thatChina's rate of growth in output per worker must necessarily fall as it moves through and beyond the turning period.

经历转型期所带来的一个影响常常为人们所担心,但却不见得要紧,除非经济政策出现错误,它还隐含着对于中国经济增长的重要看法。对中国劳均产出在转型期间一定会下降的预期是没有根据的。

The rise in real wages asChinamoves through the turning period is likely to lead to an increase in the rate oftotal factor productivitygrowth. In the nature of things, this will be concentrated in industries producing relatively sophisticated and capital-intensive products, the competitiveness of which is less sensitive to increases in real wages. It is possible that the increase in Chinese domestic demand that is necessary to reduce external current payments surpluses will require an increase in the investment rate for a while. Together with the expected acceleration of productivity growth, this would support an increase in the growth rate in total output per worker, above the high rates of the early 21st century. That could surprise the world and also the Chinese authorities, but it may well be necessary to maintain internal and external balance in the period ahead.

转型期实际工资的增长可能会导致全要素生产率的加速增长。自然而然地,这会集中体现在相对高技术行业的产出和资金密集型产品上,它们的竞争力受实际工资增长影响较小。减少贸易顺差所必须的国内需求增长要求在一段时间内增加投资率。再加上预期中的生产率加速增长,这将会支撑劳均产出增长率在21世纪初高增长的基础上继续提高。这会让世界和中国当局大吃一惊,但在未来仍需保持内外平衡。

How successful China is economically in this period of rapidly rising real wages will depend on the flexibility of the economy, its openness to foreign trade and investment and the world's most productive ideas about managing enterprises, the quality of the human resources created by the rapid expansion of the education system in the past couple of decades and the quality of the regulatory systems applied to the more complex economy that is emerging.

在这一实际工资急剧上升时期,中国在经济上取得多大成功取决于经济的灵活性、对国外贸易和投资的开放度和对世界上最有效的企业管理理念的吸收,以及过去几十年来急剧膨胀的教育系统所创造的人力资源的素质,和对新出现的远为错综复杂的经济所采用的管理体制的优劣。

It is possible that the rate of growth in total output can be maintained at something like the average rates of the decades of reform, until the approach of the industrialized countries'frontiers of productivity and living standards reduces the scope of rapid productivity growth through "catching up" with the industrialized countries.

经济总产量的增长率有可能保持改革数十年以来的平均速率,直到接近工业化国家的生产率和生活水准,这时中国才会放缓“追赶”工业化国家的生产率急剧增长的脚步。

 

Whether or notChinasucceeds in maintaining such high aggregate rates of growth until it reaches the frontiers of the world economy, most observers will be surprised by how quicklyChinacatches up now that it has entered the turning period.China's real exchange rate will rise rapidly--whether that occurs through inflation,nominalexchange rate appreciation or a combination of the two. The value ofChina's output when measured in the national accounts and converted into international currency at current exchange rates will converge towards the much higherpurchasing power estimates of GDP. People inChinaand abroad who focus on conventional measures of national output will find thatChinacatches up with the world's most productive economies in output per person--and with theUnited Statesin total output--much more quickly than they had been expecting fromextrapolationofdifferentialsin national growth rates.

不管中国能否成功地保持如此高的累计增长率直至赶上世界经济发展的脚步,大多数观察者都会吃惊于中国目前的追赶势头如此之快,它已进入了转型期。中国的实际汇率将急速上升——不管是通过通胀,还是通过名义上的汇率提高,或者是两者结合来实现。中国经济产出的价值通过国民经济核算来衡量,并以当前汇率转化为国际货币的话,将会达到更高的GDP购买力估值。在中国和国外致力于以常规方法衡量国民产出的人会发现中国正在追上世界最发达的经济体的人均生产率——以及美国的生产总值,比根据国家增长率差值的推断作出的预期要快得多。

Ross Garnautisvice-chancellor's fellowand professorial fellow in economics at theUniversityofMelbourne. He is also distinguished professor of economics at theAustralianNationalUniversity. This essay is an excerpt from Chapter 2 inChina: The Next 20 Years of Reform. and Development, Ross Garnaut,Jane GolleyandLigang Song(eds). For Garnaut's background notes and recent papers see www.rossgarnaut.com.au.

罗斯·加诺特Ross Garnaut)是墨尔本大学副校长研究员和经济学教授研究员。他还是澳大利亚国立大学经济学特聘教授。本文摘自关于中国的《下一个20年的改革与发展》一书第二章,作者:罗斯·加诺特、简·戈利(Jane Golley)和宋立纲(Ligang Song,编辑)。关于加诺特的背景资料和近期论文见以下网站:www.rossgarnaut.com.au

 

(福布斯中文网)

 


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